Is Population Really What Holds Nigeria Back?

By Lucia Muchova | April 24, 2012

from: http://vsaxmusic.com/2011/09/24/discussion-is-it-easier-being-a-nigerian-youth-in-america-today-compared-to-the-90s/The recent NY Times article about Nigeria’s population growth leaves the reader with a sense of urgency to reduce the number of Nigerian births as quickly as possible. It gives the impression that Nigeria does not stand a chance to develop into a prosperous nation unless it drastically reduces fertility rate which is currently about 5.5 births per woman. But is population really the biggest hindrance to the country’s development?

Nigeria’s GDP grows at about 7% a year, placing the country among the top 30 world economies in terms of economic growth. As contrasted with the developed world that saw their income and per capita income growth rate plummet in 2009, Nigeria’s per capita income has continued to grow.

Nigeria is the largest producer of oil in sub-Saharan Africa, 10th largest in the world and fourth largest importer of oil to the United States.

So what is the problem?

Nigeria’s income might be fast growing but 68% of the population still live below $1.25 a day.

It might be oil-rich, but its people have hardly reaped any benefits from it: manufacturing and agriculture have shrunk as a result of failing diversification and are only slowly picking up; unemployment is high and the oil industry is unlikely to change that.

Nigeria ranks 156th in the Human Development Index combining per capita income with indicators of health and education. Only 61% of the adult population is literate, school enrollment is below the average rate in countries with a similar income level, and the country ranks 117th in health expenditure as a percentage of GDP.

The country suffers from corruption, bad governance and lack of transparency whereby elites in power periodically redistribute the revenues amongst themselves and their patronage networks. It ranks 143rd in the Corruption Perceptions Index calculated by Transparency International.

With floods of articles about the Malthusian gloom of a growing population, it is worth remembering that economic prosperity is not driven by population size but, rather, by how a country invests in developing good, transparent institutions, promotes growth of human capital and capabilities of its people.

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