New report: 30% decline in Japan’s population by 2060

By Susan Yoshihara, Ph.D. | January 30, 2012

News of a new Japanese government report says the population will decline by more than 30% by 2060 (to 86 million from 127 million today). The fertility rate is expected to keep falling–from 1.39 in 2010 and “bottoming out” at 1.33 by 2024 (although no one really knows how low fertility can fall.) It must increase to 2.07 to stop the population loss, the report says.

Last year the UN population division issued a new report estimating that every nation in the world would see a rise in fertility to 2.1 by 2100. As I reported earlier, national governments like Japan’s and those in Europe reject that research and continue to report more pessimistic forecasts.