Kyoto On the Boil

By Austin Ruse | 1998

     (NEW YORK – C-FAM) With the Bonn negotiating sessions over just last week, there remains a layover of a few weeks before the final sessions open in Kyoto December 1. Michael Cutajar, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, briefed NGOs and the press this past Wednesday at UN headquarters in New York City.  

     Cutajar described three proposals which will define the final parameters of the Kyoto accords. The United States has proposed that so-called greenhouse gases be stabilized at 1990 levels. The European Union recommends reductions of 20% below 1990 levels. Japan calls for 5% reductions. 

     All proposals call for target dates of 2,005 to 2,010. The gaseous emissions culprits are carbon dioxide (caused by burning fossil fuels), methane (caused by rice cultivation, cattle and sheep ranching and my decaying material in landfills), and nitrous oxide (caused by both agricultural and industrial practices). Cutajar said the United States wants to increase the emissions "basket" to include three more chemicals which he did not specify.  

     Pro-family advocates have long maintained that the environment is the last arrow in the population control quiver, and Cutajar himself stated that big populations mean big pollution. The suspicion remains that pressure will be brought to bear on the developing world, who have relatively low "greenhouse" emissions yet high fertility rates, to contribute to the Kyoto accords through fertility reduction. Cutajar said China explicitly states that their contribution will come exclusively from the population side until the year 2,050 when they will begin contributing on the emissions side.  

     This could be the deal breaker for final passage as the US Senate, described by Cutajar as the key to Kyoto, has already said that China will have to offer specific emissions targets at the December sessions. Below Replacement Fertility Makes the New York Times Pro-family hearts beat a little faster last Sunday when the New York Times ran a UN story which implied that population thinking has begun to shift at the world body on the East River. 

     The article raised alarms that below replacement fertility (under 2.1 children per couple) has plummeted and remained too low for much of the industrialized west. Seeming to lead the charge in this reassessment was Joseph Chamie, Director of the Population Division of the UN Secretariat. The Population Division crunches the numbers used by UN policy makers. Chamie said that reduced fertility rates in the west can mean that future economic growth for the world may be imperiled. 

     Chamie's office convened a two-day expert committee meeting which was closed to NGOs and the press, but on Thursday the panel convened a public discussion. Appearing were major demographers from the US, the Russian Federation, China, Sweden and Italy. Sweden and Italy led the charge saying they were at below replacement levels, Russia and China said they were heading in that direction, while the US said they were standing just above placement. 

     Then each said they were unconcerned about the demographic problems which they admit inevitably follow the achievement of below replacement fertility. More on this meeting in next week's Friday Fax.
 

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