UN Experts Warn of COVID-19 Fertility Cliff on World Population Day

By | July 15, 2021

NEW YORK, July 16 (C-Fam) UN demographic experts are asking if the downward fertility spiral made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic may be irreversible, a conclusion that could have far-reaching implications for population predictions and for social and economic policy.

Fertility is in freefall around the world following the COVID-19 pandemic, which further reduced already low birth rates in most countries. Some, like Spain and Peru, have seen a 20% drop in fertility from 2020 to 2021. UN demographers pondered whether they should review all future population predictions, or simply treat the fertility drop caused by the COVID-19 pandemic as a “blip,” during a webinar hosted by the UN population division and the UN population fund this week.

“The real question is whether it is long term, or an inflection point, or whether it will fundamentally change people’s decisions for the future…” said head UN demographer John Wilmoth.

He concluded that “we have not heard any convincing arguments that this will change long-term fertility trends.” The finding is significant because the population division Wilmoth leads calculates the population predictions relied upon by the entire world to plan international and domestic policies. But not all the panelists who spoke at the event seemed to agree with this conclusion.

“My guess is the pandemic is an additional factor to accelerate the process to zero growth and depopulation,” said Chinese demographer Gu Baocheng.  “It may come earlier than expected.”

Baocheng spoke of the loosening of Chinese population control policies earlier this year to allow three children per family, as a response to China’s alarming low fertility. Fertility is down to 1.3 children per woman in China, which is well below replacement. With the contribution of the COVID-19 pandemic, only 12 million children were born in China in the year 2020, 2 million fewer than the previous year. Baocheng also noted that abortions had jumped from 6 million to 9 million in the same year.

Panelists also discussed economic inequalities and how they affect fertility. Those who had children during the pandemic and its immediate aftermath did so either because they had the economic means to support having more children or because they could not afford contraception and abortion to prevent their birth, according to the experts.

Women with low-paying and more unstable jobs were opting not to have children during and after the pandemic, according to Letizia Beccarini of the Bocconi University of Milan.

Similarly, Brazilian demographer Suzana Cavenaghi underlined the importance of making prenatal, maternal and neonatal health care accessible to all women. She lamented the high rate of births by C-sections in her country. “If that does not change, people will be afraid to have babies,” she underlined.

On the other hand, Deda Ogum Alangea of the University of Ghana cautiously warned of the possibility of a “baby boom” among teenagers and poor populations who did not have access to contraception and abortion. Despite sounding an alarming note, Ogum Alangea could only cite anecdotal evidence for her fears because of a lack of vital statistics information from African countries.

“We are not able to quantify what the immediate effect would be,” she said.

The prospect of a baby boom in Africa, however unconfirmed by available evidence, raised alarm bells for the UN population fund, who co-hosted the webinar.

Rachel Snow, chief demographer at the UN population fund concluded the event calling for “making sure governments regard reproductive health services as essential.”

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