United Nations Demographers Report World Population is Significantly Slowing

By Austin Ruse | 1999

     (NEW YORK — C-FAM) The world's population is growing at a rate slower than previously thought, according to numbers just released by UN demographers in New York City. The last UN revision reported in 1996 showed a world growth rate of 1.37%. The new numbers reveal that population growth rates have fallen to 1.33% per year this year. The UN expects this number to fall to .45% by 2,050. The new numbers are reported in the 1998 Revision of the World Population Estimates and Projections, a biennial report issued late last week by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 

     The 1998 Revision goes on to say that UN projections for total world population also fell in the last two years. In 1996 the UN predicted a world population of between 7.6 billion and 11.1 billion by 2,050. The new report adjusts these predictions downward to a range between 7.3 billion and 10.7 billion. This represents a reduction of approximately half a billion people from the 1996 report and reduction of one billion from the 1994 report. 

     Steven Mosher, president of the Population Research Institute, a non-partisan think-tank located in Virginia, explains that "these census figures make it harder for the population controllers to exaggerate the number of people on the planet in years to come. The population of the world will never double again. We will only add 2 or 3 billion members of the human family before beginning what will be a wrenching decent." 

     The 1998 Revision also reports on three alarming population developments; rapid population aging, the demographic impact of HIV/AIDs, and the now widespread phenomenon known as below-replacement fertility.  

     For the first time, the Population Division reports on countries whose demographic picture has been affected by HIV/AIDs. Of the 34 countries most affected, 29 are in Sub-Saharan Africa, three are in Asia, and two are in Latin America. In the hardest hit African countries, life expectancy at birth is currently estimated at 47 years, seven years less than what could have been expected without the presence of AIDs. Moreover, in Botswana, life expectancy is expected actually to drop from 61 years in 1995 to 47 years in 2,000.  

     The 1998 Revision says the aging of the world's population continues at a rapid pace. The median age of the world's population increased marginally from 23.5 years in 1950 to 26.1 years in 1998. But by 2,050 the world median age is projected to reach 37.8 years. In the developed world aging is even more stark, with Europe expected to top 47.4 years in 2,050. Economists insist young populations are needed for economic growth. 

     By far the most alarming statistic in the 1998 Revision, is the number of countries who have reached what is known as below-replacement fertility, a condition where the citizens of a country no longer replace themselves. In order to replace itself, a country must achieve at least 2.1 children per couple. Two years ago 51 countries had fallen below that number. The number of countries now in below-replacement-fertility has reached 61. Experts fear these countries are in demographic free-fall with no end in sight.

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