UNITED NATIONS, August 28 (C-Fam) After a second secret straw poll in the Security Council last week, no clear frontrunner has emerged for the next UN Secretary-General. Even so, the race may be rapidly closing to male candidates.
No candidate has reached the needed nine “encourage” votes among the fifteen members of the council to have their name forwarded to the UN General Assembly selection. The race is still wide open, with some observing that none of the current candidates have enough support and an “October surprise” may be in the cards.
What is becoming clear is that ideological voting blocs promise a long and contested race. The most powerful appears to be the European/progressive bloc of states that want the next UN Secretary General to be a woman and a feminist.
Macky Sall of Senegal, a self-declared “MAGA” candidate, already received seven “discourage” votes. This may be enough for him to withdraw from the race unless the next straw poll changes.
Argentine Mariano Grossi received a whopping six votes against in the second straw poll. He had only two votes against his candidacy in the first straw poll in July. Some commentators speculated that the increased opposition to his candidacy is from countries that don’t like his performance as head of the UN’s International Atomic Agency. Perhaps. If that were so, it would have been evident in the first straw poll.
More likely, progressive European states and their supporters want Grossi out of the race because they perceive him to be a threat to the female candidates or have failed to gain assurances of his progressive bona fides. If this is correct, the six votes against Grossi possibly came from the permanent members France and the United Kingdom, the EU member states Denmark, Greece, and Latvia, as well as Colombia.
The only other male candidate is the least known of the three. Child rights advocate and former UN official Olara Otunnu of Uganda entered the race late. In an interview in the General Assembly last week, he cited a famous prayer attributed to St. Francis as his inspiration: “Lord, make me an instrument of your peace, where there is hatred let me bring love…” Two days later, five members of the Security Council voted against his candidacy in the straw poll.
An open race at this stage raises the possibility of a prolonged process and an ideological stalemate between members of the Council. In such a case, the veto power of the permanent members of the Security Council will be key. Even if a candidate obtains fourteen out of fifteen potential votes, a single vote from a permanent member can prevent his selection.
The closest candidate to obtain nine votes is currently Guyana’s Ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, who had eight “encourage” votes in the second straw poll. But she is likely to face a U.S. veto because of positions she took against Israel in the UN Security Council.
In coming weeks, the Security Council members and the wider UN membership will privately meet with candidates to vet them further. This might reveal more ideological fault lines. Several members of the Security Council have opposing expectations of the next UN Secretary General. Europeans and progressive nations, including the two permanent members France and the United Kingdom, expect the next Secretary General to promote abortion, gender ideology, climate alarmism and censorship. The United States expects the opposite. The Trump administration has repeatedly said they want a UN that steers clear of controversial political issues and focuses on its core mission of peace and security.
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